Mathematical Models of STI Transmission

Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control, By Herbert W. Hethcote and James A. Yorke (with permission)

TITLE PAGE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD III

PREFACE VII

CHAPTER 1

BACKGROUND AND BASIC CONCEPTS 1
1 .1 The Magnitude of the Problem 1
1 .2 The Infected Person 8
1 .3 Control Procedures 10
1 .4 Modeling Transmission Dynamics 13
1 .5 The Contact Number and the I nfectee Number 16

CHAPTER 2

A SIMPLE MODEL ERR GONORRHEA DYNAMICS 18

2 .1 One Population Model for Gonorrhea 19
2 .2 Changes in Incidence : A Moving Equilibrium 21
2 .3 Changes in Incidence : Rapid Response 23

CHAPTER 3

A REFINFED MODEL FOR GONORRHEA DYNAMICS 25

3 .1 A Gonorrhea Model with n Groups 25
3 .2 Proportionate Mixing Among Groups 29

CHAPTER 4

MODELING GONORRHEA IN A POPULATION WITH A CORE GROUP 32

4 .1 The Concept of a Core Group 33
4 .2 The Core-Noncore Model 37
4 .3 Screening and Rescreening Strategies 39
4 .4 Contact Investi .gauion Strategies 42
4 .5 Vaccination Strategies 45

CHAPTER 5

MODELING GONORRHEA TRANSMISSION IN A HETEROSEXUAL POPULATION 49

5 .1 The Female-Male Model 52
5 .2 Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis 54
5 .3 Screening Women and Men 57
5 .4 Seasonal Oscillations in Gonorrhea Incidence 59

CHAPTER 6

MODELING GONORRHEA IN A POPULATION DIVIDED INTO EIGHT GROUPS 69

6 .1 The Model for a Heterogeneous Population 70
6 .2 The Contact Matrix 73
6 .3 Six Control Methods 75
6 .4 Parameter Estimation 78
6 .5 The Computer Programs 81
6 .6 Comparison of the Supplementary Control Procedures 82
6 .7 Discussion 85

APPENDIX 1 88

APPENDIX 2 97

REFERENCES 101