Home

Climate Change Project

Table of Contents

Courses

Search


Mathematical Models of STI Transmission

Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control, By Herbert W. Hethcote and James A. Yorke (with permission)

TITLE PAGE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD III

PREFACE VII

CHAPTER 1

BACKGROUND AND BASIC CONCEPTS 1
1 .1 The Magnitude of the Problem 1
1 .2 The Infected Person 8
1 .3 Control Procedures 10
1 .4 Modeling Transmission Dynamics 13
1 .5 The Contact Number and the I nfectee Number 16

CHAPTER 2

A SIMPLE MODEL ERR GONORRHEA DYNAMICS 18

2 .1 One Population Model for Gonorrhea 19
2 .2 Changes in Incidence : A Moving Equilibrium 21
2 .3 Changes in Incidence : Rapid Response 23

CHAPTER 3

A REFINFED MODEL FOR GONORRHEA DYNAMICS 25

3 .1 A Gonorrhea Model with n Groups 25
3 .2 Proportionate Mixing Among Groups 29

CHAPTER 4

MODELING GONORRHEA IN A POPULATION WITH A CORE GROUP 32

4 .1 The Concept of a Core Group 33
4 .2 The Core-Noncore Model 37
4 .3 Screening and Rescreening Strategies 39
4 .4 Contact Investi .gauion Strategies 42
4 .5 Vaccination Strategies 45

CHAPTER 5

MODELING GONORRHEA TRANSMISSION IN A HETEROSEXUAL POPULATION 49

5 .1 The Female-Male Model 52
5 .2 Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis 54
5 .3 Screening Women and Men 57
5 .4 Seasonal Oscillations in Gonorrhea Incidence 59

CHAPTER 6

MODELING GONORRHEA IN A POPULATION DIVIDED INTO EIGHT GROUPS 69

6 .1 The Model for a Heterogeneous Population 70
6 .2 The Contact Matrix 73
6 .3 Six Control Methods 75
6 .4 Parameter Estimation 78
6 .5 The Computer Programs 81
6 .6 Comparison of the Supplementary Control Procedures 82
6 .7 Discussion 85

APPENDIX 1 88

APPENDIX 2 97

REFERENCES 101

The Climate Change and Public Health Law Site
The Best on the WWW Since 1995!
Copyright as to non-public domain materials
See DR-KATE.COM for home hurricane and disaster preparation
See WWW.EPR-ART.COM for photography of southern Louisiana and Hurricane Katrina
Professor Edward P. Richards, III, JD, MPH - Webmaster

Provide Website Feedback - https://www.lsu.edu/feedback
Privacy Statement - https://www.lsu.edu/privacy
Accessibility Statement - https://www.lsu.edu/accessibility